Son vaxtlar fəlakətli və güclü tornadolar (səviyyə EF3-EF5) kimi təhlükəli atmosfer hadisələrinin uzunmüddətli proqnozunda mühüm irəliləyişə nail olunmuşdur. Simaların tapılması nəzəriyyəsindən və Furye analizdən istifadə etməklə uzunmüddətli proqnozlaşdırma üsulundan istifadə əsasında L.V.Eppelbaum (2013) geyri-stoxastik uzunmüddətli öncədən xəbərvermə üsulunu işləmişdir. O, il ərzində tornadonun ümumi miqdarı və qabarma effektləri yaradan qravitasiya sisteminin parametrləri əsasında sıx kor-relyasiya aşkar etmişdir. Lakin bu əlaqənin fiziki mənası açılmamış qalmışdır. Təqdim olunan işdə biz güclü tornadoların yaranmasını izah edən yeni fiziki-riyazi model təklif edirik. Təqdim olunan model iki başlıca etapdan ibarətdir. Başlanğıcda yuxarı troposferdə qravitasiya qüvvələri və çox güclü küləklər aşağı troposferdə, adətən tufanlı dumanlıq və yağış daşıyan sürətli sinoptik siklonlarla bağlı olan, qeyri-xətti uzun dalğalar əmələ gətirir. Sonra, yuxarı troposferdə fırtına küləkləri yaranır (isti rayonlarda havanın soyuq kütlələri soxulanda). Yaranan qravitasiya qeyri-xətti dalğaları subdumanlığın inversiyası boyunca qabarma dalğalarının sürəti ilə V=(gH)½ cumur (hücum edir). Bundan sonra qravitasiya dalğaları soyuq atmosfer cəbhəsinin daxilində formalaşan tufanın superözə-yi ilə udulur. Meteoroloji sahənin adaptasiyası nəticəsində tufan superözəyinin daxilində təzyiq azalır, küləyin fırlanması şiddətlənir və bu da güclü tornado yaradır. Müxtəlif nümunələr işlənilmiş yanaşmanın tətbiq edilməsini əks etdirir, həm də nəzəri nəticələr prak-tiki müşahidələrlə yaxşı uzlaşır. Təklif olunan yeni fiziki-riyazi metodologiya Yer atmosferində baş verən digər hadisələrin təhlili üçün konseptual tətbiq oluna bilər.

 

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