Selective management of infrastructure systems based on risk monitoring and scenario modeling
¹Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Russia
36, Stremyanny Lane, Moscow, 117997
²Empress Catherine II Saint Petersburg Mining University, Russia
2, 21st Line, Vasilyevsky Island, Saint Petersburg, 199106
³Povolzhskiy State University of Telecommunications and Informatics (PSUTY), Russia
23, Lev Tolstoy Street, Samara, 443010
⁴Institute of Geography, Ministry of Science and Education of the Republic of Azerbaijan
117, H. Javid Ave., Baku, AZ1073
⁵Mingachevir State University, Azerbaijan
21, D. Aliyeva street, Mingachevir, AZ4500
⁶Kosygin Russian State University (Technologies. Design. Art), Russia
1, Malaya Kaluzhskaya Street, Moscow, 119071
⁷Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Russia
49/2, Leningradsky Avenue, Moscow, 125167
*Corresponding author: oi_esina@mail.ru
DOI: 10.33677/GIANASCONF20260300012
Summary
Infrastructure systems operate in increasingly unstable environments characterized by technological, economic, operational, and security-related risks. This study develops a selective management mechanism for infrastructure systems aimed at concentrating managerial attention and resources on critical elements while maintaining their overall sustainability. The research adopts a system-oriented conceptual approach and draws on scientific literature, regulatory materials, practical cases, and established risk-management practices. System analysis, SWOT analysis, Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and scenario modeling are incorporated into the proposed framework. The study distinguishes selective management from general infrastructure management and identifies the principal conditions and organizational mechanisms required for its implementation. The proposed mechanism comprises continuous risk monitoring, identification and ranking of critical infrastructure elements, risk identification and assessment, development of targeted management measures, decision-support information systems, and coordination and personnel training. Particular attention is given to automation, modularity and scalability, security, fault tolerance, continuous monitoring, and standardization as principles supporting selective infrastructure management. The framework also integrates adaptive management, resource redistribution, redundancy, recovery mechanisms, and scenario-based decision support. The proposed approach provides a structured basis for prioritizing vulnerable infrastructure components and allocating management resources according to their significance, condition, criticality, and exposure to risk. It can support more focused and adaptive infrastructure management under conditions of uncertainty.
Keywords: infrastructure systems, selective management, risk monitoring, scenario modeling, risk assessment, decision support
REFERENCES
Ahmadova, Kh. N., & Jabarov, S. H. (2023). Obtaining of Al nanosized thin layers and their structural properties. Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, 48, 8083–8088. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-022-07449-2
Barikaev, E. N. (2018). Business risk management in the economic security system: Theoretical aspect. Unity.
Bell, D. (2004). The coming of post-industrial society: A venture in social forecasting (V. L. Inozemtsev, Ed.; 2nd rev. and expanded ed.). Academia.
Curt, C., & Tacnet, J.-M. (2018). Resilience of critical infrastructures: Review and analysis of current approaches. Risk Analysis, 38(11), 2441–2458. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13166
Gridneva, A. O., & Vasilevsky, A. B. (2025). Risk management in strategic management: Analysis and assessment of potential threats. Vestnik Nauki, 1(82).
Guo, D., Shan, M., & Owusu, E. K. (2021). Resilience assessment frameworks of critical infrastructures: State-of-the-art review. Buildings, 11(10), Article 464. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings11100464
Guskova, N. D., & Ulyankin, O. V. (2016). Risk management of energy service companies. Infra-M.
Humbatov, F., Solut, H. N., Aslanova, G., Khalilov, R., Ibrahimov, G., Karimbeyli, I., & Danyalov, S. (2026). Physical characterization and distribution of microplastics in coastal sands of the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea. Advanced Physical Research, 8(2), 293–306. https://doi.org/10.62476/apr82293
Imrani, Z., & Jafarov, S. (2023). Strategic Objectives of Sustainable Development Model in Production and Education. Journal of Law and Sustainable Development, 11(7), e1328. https://doi.org/10.55908/sdgs.v11i7.1328
Jafarov, S. (2024). Education Policy of 3rd Generation Universities. Revista De Gestão Social E Ambiental, 18(6), e05690. https://doi.org/10.24857/rgsa.v18n6-007
Mallaev, H. N., & Avramchikova, N. T. (2017). Theoretical bases of formation of the institutional infrastructure of the region. Management of Social and Economic Systems, (1), 39–46.
Maslova, M. A. (2022). IT infrastructure risks and methods for their solution. Research Result. Information Technologies, 7(4), 34–40. https://doi.org/10.18413/2518-1092-2022-7-4-0-4
Nevskaya, M., Shabalova, A., Kosovtseva, T., & Nikolaychuk, L. (2024). Applications of simulation modeling in mining project risk management: Criteria, algorithm, evaluation. Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development, 8(8), Article 5375. https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i8.5375
Schumpeter, J. A. (2007). The theory of economic development. Capitalism, socialism and democracy. EKSMO.
DOI: 10.33677/GIANASCONF20260300012