International scientific journal

ISSN: 2663-0419 (electronic version)

ISSN: 2218-8754 (print version)

International scientific journal

ISSN: 2663-0419 (electronic version)

ISSN: 2218-8754 (print version)

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Estimation of landslide forming factors by mathematical statistics (Hashtchin area, Ardabil province, Iran)

R.Talai

Baku State University, AZ1148, Baku, Z. Khalilov str., 23

Summary

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The Hashtchin area located south of the Ardabil province in northwest Iran is studied, because the landslide activity is extensive in this area. However, the available information on landslides in this region is still limited. The purpose of this study is to develop a model that can be used to prognosticate of landslide events and their mitigation using regression analysis of an extensive landslide data base. A database of landslides characteristics was constructed using both aerial-photography and field studies. About 13% of the selected study area is covered by different type of landslides. The quantitative relationships between landslides and factors affecting landslides are established by multi-variant method. To apply multi-variant regression analyses, a data matrix including 40 variables was constructed. The variables used in the forwards stepwise analyses are different measures of slope, aspect, stream and rivers length, lithology, off-fault distance, landuse, annual rainfall rate, roads and construction area. By applying multi-regression coefficient, the most significant affecting factors are selected. The widespread landslide activities in this area are caused and triggered by lithology types and landuse. The landslides that occur in the area are primarily located in claystone with interbedded marl and mudstone, and hydrothermal altered zones. About 36.75% of total landslide area is located at this unit. Statistic values indicate that litology and landuse are more important than the other parameters in the equation. ß coefficient of variables included the multi-variant regression equation provide a model for landslide susceptibility in the Hashtchin area.