Landslide modeling using GIS and a statistical method upstream of Port Tangier Med (Tangier, Morocco)
Maktite A., Faleh A.
Faculty of Letters and Human Sciences, Saïs-Fès, Department of Geography, Sidi Mohammed ben Abdellah University, Fès, Morocco: maktiteabderrahim@gmail.com, ali.faleh@usmba.ac.ma
DOI: 10.33677/ggianas20240200130
Summary
The context of this study is crucial for understanding the challenges faced by the Tanger Med Port, a strategic hub for international trade. Located in a mountainous region, this port is particularly vulnerable to natural hazards, especially landslides. A study conducted on a 193 km² test site recorded 277 slope movements, representing about 11% of the total area. This evaluation of terrain susceptibility used the information value method to map the movements over recent decades as well as six predisposing factors.
The results show that nearly 31% of the total area is highly susceptible to mass movements, 22% is very sensitive, and 23.3% presents a low threat. These findings were rigorously compared and validated using success rate and prediction rate curves. Five major risk classes for landslides were identified in areas that are undeveloped or sparsely developed with low to negligible values and developed areas on mountain slopes with very high-risk values.
Accurate mapping and risk analysis are essential for developing management and prevention strategies to minimize potential impacts on port infrastructure and associated economic activities. This study thus contributes to a better understanding of geological risks in the region and more importantly, to the implementation of appropriate measures to ensure the safety and resilience of the port.
Keywords: port, Mediterranean Tangier, informative value, success curves, forecast curves
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DOI: 10.33677/ggianas20240200130