№ 1,
2011
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To problem of forecasting of high waters and mud flows on the south slope of the Greater Caucasus
Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan Republic, Hydrometeorology national department, Research Institute of Hydrometeorology, AZ1154, Baku, H.Aliyev av., 10, E-mail: safarov53@mail.ru
Summary
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In abstract main principles of the radar-tracking estimation of atmospheric precipitation dropped out on the rivers reservoirs are considered. On their basis, taking into account characteristics of reservoirs and features of development dynamics of thunderstorm processes new ways of short-term forecasting of such phenomena are put forward. By results of the analysis of the long-term radar-tracking supervision data new semi empirical formulas for estimation of the maximum expense of expected high waters, and also for forecasting of probabili¬ty of occurrence of mud flows are offered.