№ 4,
2009
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Assessment and classification of accidents risks during wells drilling on the base of probabilistic-statistic analysis and fuzzy clusterization of their consequences
1 – Institute of Geology and Geophysics of Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, AZ1143, Baku, H.Javid av., 119
2 – Azerbaijan State Oil Academy, Baku, Az1010, Azadlig av., 20
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This article focuses on accident analysis during the drilling and risk assessment on this base. As a result of statistic analysis and fuzzy cluster-analysis on time spent for accidents liquidation and material losses for case study five classes have been defined and each class can be characterized by heaviness degree of accidents. General indicator is suggested for accidents results and dependence of accidents frequency upon this indicator is obtained. Risk indicator is determined which numerically is equal to product of probable accidents frequency onto general characteristic of results with degree indicator equal to degree of hyperbolic dependence giving curve of risk. There is a classification of accident situations on probability of their appearing, results and risk.