№ 1, 2019

Dangerous atmospheric events: a new physical-mathematical approach

Arsen’yev S.A.¹, Eppelbaum L.V.², Ermakov N.N.³

1 – Dept. of Earth and Planetary Physics of Schmidt’s Institute of the Earth’s Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences 10 Bolshaya Gruzinskaya str., Moscow, Russia, 123995: Arsy7@mail.ru

2 – School of Geosciences, Raymond and Beverly Sackler Faculty of Exact Sciences. Tel Aviv University Ramat Aviv, 6997801, Tel Aviv, Israel: levap@post.tau.ac.il

3 – School of Chemistry, Raymond and Beverly Sackler Faculty of Exact Sciences. Tel Aviv University Ramat Aviv, 6997801, Tel Aviv, Israel: ermakov@post.tau.ac.il

Summary. A significant progress has been recently reached in a long-range forecast of such dangerous atmospheric events as catastrophic and violent tornadoes (EF3-EF5 level). Eppelbaum (2013) elaborated non-stochastic long-term prediction method using pattern recognition theory and Fourier analysis. He detected a close correlation tie of the total tornado numbers per annum with the gravity system of the Earth – Moon – Sun producing the tide forces. However, physical meaning of this effect leaves undisclosed. In present work, we propose a physical-mathematical model which elucidates the process of violent tornado initiation. It occurs in two main stages. At first, the gravitational forces and the hurricane winds in the upper troposphere form the long tide non-linear waves in the lower troposphere. The gale-force winds in the top troposphere arise at intrusion of air cold masses into the warm areas and are usually connected to the fast synoptic cyclones bearing thundery cloudiness and rains. The arisen gravitational non-linear waves rush at the speed of tide waves V=(gH)½ along the subcloud inversion. After this, gravitational waves fall on (and it is absorbed into) thunderstorm supercells which are already formed inside the cold atmospheric front. In the result of the meteorological field adaption, a pressure inside the thunderstorm super-cells decreases, wind rotation becomes stronger and generates a violent tornado. Various environ-mental examples illustrate an applicability of the developed approach. The theoretical results show a good agreement with the field observations. The proposed new physical-mathematical methodol-ogy can be conceptually applied to analysis of other environmental phenomena.

Keywords: tornado, long tide gravity waves, Earth-Moon-Sun gravity system, soliton, dangerous environmental phenomena



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