№ 2, 2019

Assessment of geodynamic risk of Mingachevir water reservoir

Islamova Sh.K., Kazimova S.E., Ismailova S.S.

Republican Seismic Survey Center, Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, 9, N.Rafibeily str., Baku, AZ1001, Azerbaijan: shirin.i@inbox.ru, sabina.k@mail.ru

Summary. The paper presents the results of the analysis of seismicity, tectonics and the mani-festations of induced seismicity in the area of the Mingachevir reservoir for the period 2008-2017. Local earthquakes that occur when the Mingachevir reservoir is filled have insignificant magnitudes – less than 2-2.5, tremors with a magnitude of 3.5 are less common. Epicenters are located mainly at a distance of no more than 5-10 km. Data analysis showed that seismic activity increases when the pressure reaches 78 m or more. Based on the mechanisms of the earthquake source, maps of the distribution of compressive and extension stresses in the horizontal plane and in depth were constructed. It was found that the northwestern part of the study area is characterized by extension and compression in the south and southeast. Analysis of seismic activity observation data showed the dependence of the rate of change of the water level in the reservoir with the seismic activity of weak earthquakes, which is non-linear. The rise in water level lasts 5 months, from March to June. In August the water level at the beginning drops gradually and then sharply (from 80-78 m to 74-73 m). As a result of the drop in water level in this area the induced seismicity increased. In 2010 the water level in the Mingachevir reservoir increased from 78-79 meters in March to 82-83 meters in May, caused an increase in the water level in the Kura River and attracted flooding. An analysis of seismicity for this period showed that in February, March, April, July and August 21 earthquakes with magnitudes of 1.2-3.0 occurred in this region.

Keywords: Mingachevir reservoir, seismic activity, earthquake, landslides

 

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DOI:10.33677/ggianas20190200033

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