№ 1, 2018

The trend estimation of long-term changes of the seasonal and annual average air temperature over Nakhchivan city area during the last century

Safarov S.G.,¹ Huseynov G.M.²

1 – National Aviation Academy, 25-km Bina village, Baku, Azerbaijan, AZ1045: surxaysafarov@ymail.com

2 -The Ministry of Emergency Situations, Aviation department, Karadagh region, Baku, Azerbaijan, AZ1000: gabilhuseyn@mail.ru

Summary. In order to assess the features of modern climate changes over the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic area, at the first stage, a possible change in the seasonal and annual air temperatures over the 133-year period (1881-2013) in the Nakhchivan city zone was investigated and evaluated. Alongside, air temperature fluctuations were considered in relation with the fluctuations in the general circulation parameters of the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere. To estimate the intensity of the average air temperature changes in Nakhchivan city, seasonal and annual air temperature deviations and their repetitions in different gradations during the period of 1881-1960 and 1961-2013 years were calculated. To assess the trends of air temperature changes in Nakhchivan, a method of comparing two different climatic periods was used. To assess changes in long-term climate series, multi-year dynamics of linear and curved trend graphs were plotted. Correlation coefficients determining the degree of statistical confidence of altering trends were calculated. Additionally, 0°C/10year ratio parameter that indicates the rate of air temperature change was used.

Keywords: climate change, air temperature, correlation and circulation of atmosphere, trend of changes, fluctuations of temperature

 

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doi:10.33677/ggianas20180100008

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