№ 1, 2018

The trend estimation of long-term changes of the seasonal and annual average air temperature over Nakhchivan city area during the last century

Safarov S.G.,¹ Huseynov G.M.²

1 – National Aviation Academy, 25-km Bina village, Baku, Azerbaijan, AZ1045: surxaysafarov@ymail.com

2 -The Ministry of Emergency Situations, Aviation department, Karadagh region, Baku, Azerbaijan, AZ1000: gabilhuseyn@mail.ru

Summary. In order to assess the features of modern climate changes over the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic area, at the first stage, a possible change in the seasonal and annual air temperatures over the 133-year period (1881-2013) in the Nakhchivan city zone was investigated and evaluated. Alongside, air temperature fluctuations were considered in relation with the fluctuations in the general circulation parameters of the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere. To estimate the intensity of the average air temperature changes in Nakhchivan city, seasonal and annual air temperature deviations and their repetitions in different gradations during the period of 1881-1960 and 1961-2013 years were calculated. To assess the trends of air temperature changes in Nakhchivan, a method of comparing two different climatic periods was used. To assess changes in long-term climate series, multi-year dynamics of linear and curved trend graphs were plotted. Correlation coefficients determining the degree of statistical confidence of altering trends were calculated. Additionally, 0°C/10year ratio parameter that indicates the rate of air temperature change was used.

Keywords: climate change, air temperature, correlation and circulation of atmosphere, trend of changes, fluctuations of temperature



Anisimov O.A., Polyakov V.Yu. The forecast of change of air temperature for the first quarter. Meteorology and Hydrology, №2, 1999, pp. 25-31 (in Russian).

Dzerdzeevsky B.L. Circulation mechanisms in the atmosphere of the northern hemisphere in the 20th century. Institute of Geography of the USSR Academy of Sciences. Proceedings of Meteorol. Researches, Moscow, 1968, 240 p. (in Russian).

Kononova N.K. 2015. Change in atmosphere circulation of Northern Hemisphere in XX-XXI centuries and their results for climate. Basic and applied climatology, №1, pp. 133-160 (in Russian).

Kononova N.K. Classification of Northern Hemisphere circulation mechanisms on B.L.Dzerdzeevsky. Voentechinizdat. Moscow,  2009, 372 p. (in Russian).

Perevedencev, Yu.P., Vereshagin M.A., Shantalinsky K.M. et al. Climatic conditions and resources changes in the Middle Volga region. Center for innovative technology. Kazan, 2011, 296 p. (in Russian).

Proietti T.,Hillebrand E. Seasonal changes in Central England temperatures. CREATES Research Paper, AARHUS University, Denmark, June 1, 2015, 25 p.

Rohde R., Muller R.A., Jacobsen R., Muller E., Perlmutter S. et al. A New estimate of the average earth surface land temperature spanning 1753 to 2011. Research Article a SciTechnol journal: Geoinformatics & Geostatistics. V. 1, Iss. 1, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.4172/2327-4581.1000101

Safarov A.S. Analysis of the linkage between the temperature of the northern hemisphere and the  temperature in the highlands of the Greater Caucasus. Current problems of water management, engineering and communication systems and Ecology. Proceedings of the international scientifically-practical conference, Baku, 14-15 April, 2014, pp. 322-326 (in Azerbaijani).

Safarov S.G., Makhmudov R.N. Current climate change and Azerbaijan. “Ziya”. Baku,  2011, 312 p. (in Azerbaijani).

Safarov S.G. Current trend of air temperature and precipitation amount in Azerbaijan.  Elm. Baku, 2000, 300 p. (in Russian).

Safarov S.G., Ramazanov R.G. Assessment of possible linkages between global and regional air temperatures (case study: north-eastern slope of the Lesser Caucasus). The problems of hydrometeorological support for economic activity in climate change. Proceedings of the international scientific conference, 5-8 may, Belarus. State University, Minsk, 2015, pp. 145-147 (in Russian).

Ulanova E.S., Sirotenko  O.D. Methods of statistical analysis in agrometeorology. Gidrometeoizdat. Leningrad, 1968, 198 p. (in Russian).

Yu L., QiuFang С., Hui Ming S., ZhiSheng A., Linderholm H.W. Amplitudes, rates, periodicities and causes of temperature variations in the past 2485 year and future trends over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau. Chinese Sci. Bull., 56, 2011, pp. 28-29.


Download the paper